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Rotorua Chamber of Commerce

Articles for the Tabloid, June 2010

 

Bay of Plenty first for Nicara Lodge

Heather and Mike Johnson, owners of Nicara Lakeside Lodge in Ngongotaha, are delighted that they been awarded the prestigious Qualmark grade of ENVIRO-GOLD for their efforts in sustainability and responsible tourism.

This grade is the highest available and it is the first such award given in the Bay of Plenty Region under the Qualmark Guest and Hosted category. Nicara Lodge is also graded as a 5 Star property within the same category.

To earn New Zealand tourism’s highest official environmental award, Nicara Lodge had to show effectiveness in energy efficiency, waste management and water conservation, with community activities and conservation initiatives also considered under Qualmark’s environmental criteria.

“We are absolutely delighted at achieving this level of sustainability,” says Heather Johnson. “While we have introduced some new initiatives, we have always been aware of the issues affecting the environment. This award is the culmination of 3 years’ study, research and implementation.”

KiaOraMai popular with industry

KiaOraMai is proving popular with industry since the official launch. Rotorua was the first city in New Zealand to officially sign up to the programme. Since the launch in Rotorua other cities are gaining interest, with KiaOraMai being launched around the country from Southland to Auckland.

Good customer service is essential for front line staff of any organisation but what is it that makes customer service a unique and memorable experience in New Zealand?

With New Zealand increasingly becoming a destination for tourists, business people and international events, providing outstanding customer service is as important as it has ever been. However, to host international visitors and showcase New Zealand on the world stage, to increase economic return and to provide a uniquely New Zealand experience, more than ordinary customer service skills are required.

In a bid to raise the bar and set a national standard for service industry employees across New Zealand, Tourism Industry of New Zealand (TIA) and The Services Industries Training Alliance (SITA) developed the KiaOraMai programme with endorsement from Minister of Tourism and Prime Minister, John Key.

“The way that you interact with tourists, the relationships you form and the services you provide, matter not only for the individual organisation you’re working for but also the way that others will perceive New Zealand,” says Prime Minister, John Key.

KiaOraMai is about creating consistent, positive, uniquely New Zealand customer experiences; every time, everywhere for every customer in New Zealand. Feedback on the programme has been positive with customer service staff from organisations being impressed with the knowledge they have gained on New Zealand and its unique cultural heritage.

“What makes the KiaOraMai programme stand out from general customer service training is the focus on Manaakitanga and Kaitiakitanga. These beliefs make Kiwi customer service unique in the world. As a group we are naturally friendly and welcoming; we thrive on people coming to our country and learning about our culture. We embrace our visitors and naturally treat them as if they were family,” says Kristy Verster of Rotorua, Ground Crew Supervisor for NZONE.

Managers have been impressed with the response from their staff after attending the KiaOraMai workshops. “I have noticed a continuous improvement in their customer service skills which is directly attributable to the training received on the KiaOraMai programme,” says Marion Rangitoheriri of Whanau Support Services Trust.

The programme involves some on-the-job supervision and monitoring as participants put into practice new skills gained from attending the two workshops. Workshop facilitators are specially trained in the delivery and excellent learning resources support the learner and the on-job supervisor.

To grow your business reputation and to become part of delivering the uniquely NZ customer and visitor experience promise, enrol your staff here: www.kiaoramai.co.nz/apply_now.php. For more information call: 0800 29 29 29.

Budget 2010: Improving the Lives of all New Zealanders

This year's Budget was designed to create jobs, boost our economy and help Kiwi families get ahead. It also keeps us on track to reverse the deficit and get the Budget back into surplus.

Budget 2010 delivered the most sweeping changes to our tax system in 25 years. Most significantly for business are the changes to GST and the cut to the company tax rate.

There will be a small increase in GST from 12.5 to 15%. However, the income tax cuts, payments for Superannuation, Working for Families, benefits and student allowances will all increase to compensate for this, delivering an increase to the average family of $25 a week. Eighty-four percent of the tax cut money goes towards the bottom two income groups. Seventy-three percent of income earners will pay 17.5% tax from 1 October, down from 33% some two years ago.

To remain internationally competitive, the company tax rate goes to 28%. The Government recognises the difficulties that small business owners face, and it is important to give them a break. This cut also starts to put New Zealand on an even keel with Australia in terms of becoming a more attractive place to live, work and invest. While there is still a way to go, this tax cut is an important step towards this Government’s goal of getting ahead of Australia overall.

This Government is tackling the rising debt caused by years of unsustainable spending by the previous Government and as a result government accounts are set to return to surplus three years sooner than predicted last year.

Hundreds of millions of dollars are being invested in priority social services such as hospitals, schools, and safer communities. The new $321 million over four years in new initiatives in science, research and technology will be a huge boost to our economy by allowing business and primary sector development into innovations and smarter ways to conduct business. Specifically $234 million has been earmarked for supporting business research and development, including technology development grants for firms doing R&D.

The Treasury is now forecasting real GDP growth of 3.2% in the year to March 2011 - a significant improvement on the 1.8% forecast in the Budget last year. The projections now show fairly steady growth at about 3% over the next four years. This includes expected extra growth from the Budget tax package, which Treasury conservatively forecasts to add about 1% to the size of the economy by 2017.

The Budget shows an improved fiscal outlook over the forecast period, with both Crown debt and Budget deficits better than forecast in Budget 2009. We now expect the deficit to peak at just over 4% of GDP next year, before returning to surplus in 2016 - three years sooner than forecast in the Budget last year.

That is quite a turnaround and as a result the Crown debt forecasts have also improved. Net debt is now expected to peak at 27% of GDP in 2014/15 - falling to 14% by 2023/24 - reducing our vulnerability to volatile sovereign debt markets. A big part of the improvement is the Government remaining within its $1.1 billion allocation for new operating spending.

Widely lauded as the Budget with the most impact for change in many years, I believe this Budget has delivered what is required to keep pushing New Zealand back to a sustainable economic position, and achieving the high of standard of living that all New Zealanders deserve.

For more information, visit www.taxguide.govt.nz

Financially sorted staff make for good business

Helping your staff to get their money sorted is good for profitability, productivity and workplace safety, according to three employers featured in a new web movie from the Retirement Commission.

The three businesses – a Wellington Pak ‘n Save store, New Zealand Post and Blue Star subsidiary Printlink – have all introduced financial education in their workplaces. They appear on the Commission’s Sorted website.

They talk about why they have run Sorted seminars for their staff and offered them other resources – like free booklets – and what it has meant for their businesses.

The Retirement Commission has developed five free Sorted seminars for employers to run with their staff on topics ranging from goal setting, budgeting and managing debt through to making decisions about KiwiSaver.

All the material needed to run them can be downloaded from the Sorted website, www.sorted.org.nz/seminars. There is also a list of facilitators on the site for employers wanting to engage external help.

For businesses and individuals wanting to take a more formal approach to financial education there are now unit standards available for personal financial management. See the Network for Financial Literacy’s website or contact your Industry Training Organisation. For more information about Sorted’s free resources for employers go to sorted.org.nz/employers.

Rotorua Chamber Recognised for Providing Excellence in Business Support

President Michelle makes the acceptance speech at the Awards Ceremony

The Rotorua Chamber of Commerce has won two Vero Excellence in Business Support Awards – the only entrant this year to win two awards. It was successful in the BDO Not-For-Profit Award and the BDO Regional North Island Award categories for the consistent achievement in supporting the Rotorua business community.

The Prime Minister Hon John Key was on hand to congratulate the winners on Budget night, 20 May. He was guest of honour at the Vero Excellence in Business Support Awards Gala Dinner at the Auckland Town Hall, joining more than 500 business leaders who celebrated the finalists and winners of the 10 award categories vying for the Vero Supreme Award.

The Vero Excellence in Business Support Awards, now in their sixth year, recognise excellence in the field of business support. Established by Bizzone, they are supported by foundation sponsor Vero, BDO and Management magazine. Previous supreme award winners include MYOB and The National Bank.

Sarah Trotman, Managing Director of Bizzone, says “These awards are world class; they provide a unique opportunity for organisations to benchmark their performance alongside other organisations in their sector; give a mark of quality to their organisation as well as learning from others in the sector.”

The awards are independently evaluated by the New Zealand Business Excellence Foundation using an international set of criteria designed to showcase best practice. “The bar is set high,” says Mike Watson, chief executive of the Foundation. “The winners are the organisations that are able to demonstrate sustained results over time. Excellent business support assists New Zealand businesses to build capability and capacity and in doing so become more competitive and sustainable.”

“BDO congratulates the awards winners,” says BDO managing partner Craig Lamberton. “Their commitment to business excellence is evidenced through a very rigorous review process, and their success is now appropriately recognised. They are deserving winners, who play a vital role in driving the success of the New Zealand economy.”

In this highly competitive business environment it is more important than ever for businesses to secure the best possible support services to enable them to deliver products and services of excellent quality for their clients” says Management magazine publisher Toni Myers. “Choosing the right service providers is a critical element in every company’s performance; these awards help companies identify excellent service providers and award those excellent performers the recognition they deserve.”

2010 Annual Plan Submissions to the
Rotorua District Council and
Environment Bay of Plenty

On behalf of its membership, the Rotorua Chamber of Commerce lodged comprehensive submissions on the annual plans of both Rotorua District Council and Environment Bay of Plenty Regional Council. In both cases CEO Roger Gordon requested the opportunity to speak in support of the submissions.

The main points in the submission to the Rotorua District Council were:

· That a blueprint (a 50 Year Vision) for the Rotorua District be produced based on an average 1.5% per year growth in population

· That RDC commissions the development of collateral to allow visual representation of the proposed 50 Year Vision

· That the current Economic Development Strategy published in May 2004 be reviewed and that the strategic goal be the achievement of the 50 Year Vision

· That a special Mayoral Task Force be created to review and update the 2004 Economic Development Strategy

· That development contributions be removed

· That a more transparent policy on building and resource consents be adopted

· That RDC reviews its policy on short term hireage by out-of-town retail organisations of RDC venues

· That RDC implements the proposed basis of the 2010 rates model, increasing the UAGC from $550 to $575

· That RDC implements the proposed basis of the 2010 rates model, decreasing the urban business differential from 380% to 360%

· That RDC increases the fixed component of the business targeted rate for farming ratepayers from $50 to $200

· That the expenditure activity for the cost centres that are funded by the business direct targeted tax be more transparent

· That the RDC continues its investment in the Rotorua airport

· That RDC continues the revitalisation of Central Rotorua based on the 2004 CBD Revitalisation Strategy and stage one of the 2009 Lakefront Development Plan

· That the future roading infrastructure plan to establish a Victoria Street by-pass be reviewed

· That RDC approves the proposed Air Quality Control Bylaw

· That RDC adopts option 3B in the consideration of kerbside collection service in the proposed Waste Management and Minimisation Plan

· That the net cost of service of this recycling be recovered by the introduction of a urban residential targeted rate

· That RDC reviews its procurement policy to encourage the use of local suppliers and contractors

· That RDC appoints directors for Rotorua Holdings Limited drawn from those in the private sector that have experience of commercial enterprise governance

· That RDC develops a clear exit strategy policy to be applied to future joint ventures under the umbrella of Rotorua Holdings Limited based on the assessment of risk, capital requirements and a core business focus for RDC.

· That RDC establishes an equivalent full-time staff ceiling at 520 FTEs for the next three years.

The main points in the submission to Environment Bap of Plenty were:

· RCC supports the recommendation of the “special projects position paper on Lake Rotorua” specifically in regard of the reduction targets for Lake Rotorua

· RCC supports the Rotorua Air Quality Action Plan in particular the planned reduction of domestic emissions through incentive packages to convert from non-compliant wood burners to clean heat alternatives

· RCC submits that the three major environmental projects identified as Tauranga Harbour and catchment, Rotorua Air and Rotorua Lakes should be adopted as core functions of EBOP and hence be funded from general rates or investment income

· RCC recommends that the Regional Economic Strategy Governance Group re-allocate funds to a regional tourism project and advise the RCC and Rotorua Tourism Board of this inclusion

· RCC recommends that EBOP leverages the broadband infrastructure knowledge base within its organisation to optimise BOP’s access to the Regional Broadband Initiative funding

· RCC supports the formation of a local fibre-network company to further facilitate the development of this essential infrastructure.

The Rotorua Chamber of Commerce look forward to the confirmed Annual Plans and to working with the respective authorities to progress the growth and prosperity of Rotorua.

You're Never a Long Shot

 

Did you see the last Kentucky Derby in the States?

WOW! It usually lives up to its billing as the most exciting two minutes in sports but this year it was off the charts.

As you may have already heard, 50-1 long shot Mine That Bird absolutely blew away the field. A horse, that was purchased for a mere US$9,500 and was racing against thoroughbreds valued at millions of dollars, is not supposed to win.

But win he did. Mine That Bird was dead last at the ¾ mile marker, in twelfth place at the mile marker, and by the time jockey Calvin Borel got him to the final straight he had flown by the field to take the lead and win by over six lengths.

Obviously I couldn't help but think of all the lessons we could take away from Calvin and Mine That Bird:

1. You don't have to be the biggest or the richest to compete but you do have to be in the race to win. Some of the horses that Mine That Bird beat were purchased as foals for over $3,000,000, are owned by very wealthy people and are trained by the most prominent and successful trainers in the business. Mine That Bird's trainer is an unknown out of New Mexico.

The lesson: While your competitors may have deeper pockets than you do, the one who executes the best will still win.

2. Seize the opportunity when it presents itself. One of the keys to Mine That Bird's victory was the ability to not only get to the inside rail, but to get through two openings between horses to get to the lead. Any hesitation by jockey Calvin Borel and Mine That Bird may well have been caught behind the pack, unable to break through.

The lesson: We are presented with opportunities every day but they'll pass us by if we're not a) looking for them and b) willing to act quickly and decisively to maximize them.

3. Pedigrees and experience are great but never underestimate hard work and a big heart. Mine That Bird came into the race as, the Boston Globe said, "An extra in a 19-horse race of stake winners owned by bluebloods." Jockey Calvin Borel is described by Sports Illustrated as ". . .not often thought of in the first flight of today's top riders even though he has over 4,000 victories and a Derby win in 2007."

The lesson: It reminded me that some of my best employees never went to college, or had no retail experience when I hired them. Don't look at what people don't have on the outside, but look what they have inside them. The same holds true about yourself.

4. Last but not least, believe in yourself. As Calvin was celebrating his victory while still atop Mine That Bird, he pointed toward his helmet and screamed, "It's all in your head."

The lesson: Think like a winner, believe you're a winner, and chances are you'll fly to victory just like Calvin Borel and Mine That Bird.

Remember this: People, horses, and companies are only long shots because someone wasn't smart enough to bet on them.

KiaOra, the Essential Guide to Central Rotorua

The Rotorua Chamber of Commerce is again publishing it very successful KiaOra Essential Guide to be released into the market at the beginning of October, in time for the start of the tourist season. The Chamber first published the guide, previously called The Map, eight years ago. Since then it has become an essential publication promoting the retail offering in the central business district.

Last year the format underwent considerable reformatting as it featured sections on different attractions in the city: restaurants, bars, high street shopping, Rotorua Central Mall, tourist attractions, and financial institutions and information centres.

It would appear that this is the first guide in New Zealand to feature main street shopping and big box retail alongside each other as a complementary attraction. The guide has been particularly popular with the Australian tourists coming into Rotorua on the direct Sydney to Rotorua flights.

Representatives from the Rotorua Chamber are currently contacting all of the advertisers in the 2009 edition to renew their advertising. Any retail business in the CBD can take either a line listing at $100 plus GST or a full colour block advertisement at $400 plus GST. The 2010 edition will feature a new section that will offer 24 discount or value-add coupons.

New retail outlets that would like to be featured in the 2010 edition should contact either Karen Heard or Denise Emery at the Rotorua Chamber of Commerce

Retain your valuable employees with education and up-skilling opportunities

The unique relationship between the Rotorua Chamber of Commerce and Waiariki Institute of Technology means Chamber members and their staff have the chance to up-skill at a much reduced rate.

For several years Waiariki has offered the Chamber special deals around business and computing courses. Now the range has become much wider and Chamber members and their staff can extend their skills and enhance their CVs in many directions.

Creative writing offers you the chance to stretch your literary legs around screen writing or technical scripts. You can try an introduction to sociology or psychology with the team of lecturers in social sciences. There are some excellent health and safety courses coming out of the School of Forestry and in the School of Business and Tourism, those who work in customer services or behind the scenes crunching numbers can raise their skill level with a wide range of courses on offer.

Waiariki timetables some of these courses in Semester 1 and some in Semester 2 which starts shortly. This is an excellent time to enquire.

The Waiariki-Chamber deal means that an unlimited number of employees from the same business who are fulltime staff members can take advantage of the offer. There is a part-time brochure available from Waiariki and this outlines the courses available from every School. Some run during the daytime, some in the evening, and there are also lecturer profiles so you can see the calibre of the Waiariki tutorial team.

If it has been a long time since you studied, do not be put off. Waiariki also offers courses for those who need to polish up their study skills. These make an excellent pre-cursor to specialised courses further down the line.

There are a couple of things to be aware of: this offer is good only for one course per employee and can be used only once per employee. Enrolment and study of the course must begin in Semester 1 or 2 in 2010 and a number of small additional fees still apply.

To get a copy of the booklet so you can phone 0800 924 274 or visit http://www.waiariki.ac.nz/

Annabel Schuler, Director

School of Computing, Technologies and Communication

Waiariki Institute of Technology

Budget 2010: Impacts on Businesses

On 20 May 2010 the Government announced the long-awaited budget. Much has been published and discussed since then, and the general consensus is that it was a good budget which should help to encourage more saving and direct investment more towards productive enterprise.

We have set out below some of the issues which we see as being of practical concern to local business operators and taxpayers.

Personal Tax Rates

All personal tax rates will reduce from 1 October 2010. This reduction will be between 5% and 7.5%, depending on individual income levels, and brings the top rate of taxation to the same level as Trusts, and closer to the Company tax rate. It is expected that the additional after-tax income over all levels of taxable income will more than offset the increase in GST, referred to below.

Company Tax Rate

The company tax rate will reduce to 28% from 1 April 2011, reducing the gap between the new company tax rate and the top personal tax rate to 5%. The reduced rate will lead to more companies re-investing tax-paid profits into the business to sustain future growth. There will be a 2 year transition period to allow tax paid at 30% to be imputed to dividends at a 30% rate from 1 October 2010. The top PIE rate will reduce to 28% from 1 October 2010, which should continue to make this type of investment attractive to taxpayers who are on higher taxation rates.

GST

GST will increase to 15% from 1 October 2010. It is expected that this will create a one-off spike in inflation of at least 2%. Businesses need to ensure that their accounting systems, IT systems and procedures are able to deal with the new GST rate. Other issues that should be given consideration by businesses are pricing, consumer demand prior to 1 October 2010 (stock and working capital), contracts spanning 1 October 2010, time of supply, credit notes and bad debts.

Depreciation Changes and the Impact on Property Investors

In an effort to change emphasis from investing in property, it is proposed to remove the depreciation claim on residential and commercial buildings from the commencement of the 2011/2012 income year. This change is to apply to buildings with an estimated useful life of 50 years or more, and we expect more debate and clarification of this definition over the next few months. There has been some comment that rents will increase as a result of these changes, but this would seem unlikely in the current market. Chattels and fit-out costs will still be depreciable, and it will be important to be able to classify such items in any future property transactions, to enable a clear separation from the definition of “buildings”. We still believe that people will find property investment attractive and it may become more of a domain for specialists. In simple terms the removal of a depreciation claim is a timing issue as in most cases such depreciation was ultimately recovered on sale and taxed accordingly at that stage.

Qualifying and Loss Attributing Qualifying Companies

With effect from commencement of the 2011/2012 income year there will be no distinction between Qualifying Companies (QCs) and Loss Attributing Qualifying Companies (LAQCs). QCs will have one class of share only, and will be included in the definition of Partnerships for taxation purposes, requiring the filing of an IR7 Partnership tax return instead of an IR4 Company return. This means that both profits and losses will flow through to shareholders according to their “effective interest” (voting interest, shareholding percentage, etc). Losses will only be able to be claimed to the extent of the shareholders’ investment in the QC. Excess losses will be carried forward and claimed as the investment in the company increases. It is anticipated that a significant number of companies will revoke their QC status if they expect to make profits. This would need to be actioned during the current year ending 31 March 2011, to avoid taxation issues arising under the proposed new rules regarding changes in QC status.

Trusts

The Trustee tax rate has not changed, and is now the same as the top personal tax rate, at 33%, which will simplify deciding whether to allocate Trust income to certain beneficiaries. Resident Withholding Tax must be deducted by companies paying dividends to Trustee shareholders, for the difference between the company tax paid and the Trustee tax rate, at the time the dividend is paid. This difference will rise from 3% to 5% once the new company tax rate of 28% has become established. In our opinion Trusts are still very desirable structures to use as part of an overall strategy of asset protection and wealth maximisation, depending on individual circumstances.

If you have any questions regarding the Budget announcements, or any of the above comments, please contact either your professional advisor, or Don Stewart, David Watt or Koren Wilson of Nairn Fisher Limited.

Using Social Media to Get Your Website Higher on Google

Having your website at the top of the search engine results for a particular term is a really good goal to have but it can be difficult to achieve, especially if your competition are also doing some advanced search engine optimisation (SEO).

Owning many results on the first page of search results is even better than just ranking at number one. Imagine if your website or the web pages that you control could fill almost the entire front page of search results for some search terms – that will give you great traffic…!

As more and more websites want to market their product effectively online it is also getting more and more difficult to add enough “search engine bait” to your product descriptions or web pages to be found in search engines.

Social media may be the answer you are looking for in two ways:

1) to help you get your main website listed higher on search engines

2) to increase the number of pages that you have listed near the top of search results.

Google (and more recently Bing) are now indexing many parts of social media that were not getting listed in search results until a short while ago.

Let’s look at some of the social media tools that are getting indexed and how you can use them for your business.

Twitter

The Twitter-stream is getting indexed – not quite in “real time” but with only a few hours delay by Google. The Twitter-stream is the content or the “tweets” that make up what people are saying using Twitter and other third party Twitter tools.

This will be increasingly important as more people are using iPhones and other smart-phone and mobile devices while they are away at a holiday destination such as Rotorua to find great places to eat or other neat things to see and do.

Ideally you would use Twitter to let people know how busy your bar or restaurant was so that people will want to come and join in the fun or so they will know that there is no waiting for tables.

You may use Twitter to showcase your weekly or daily specials or to promote “soft-dollar” discounts just to your followers. Soft-dollar discounts mean you give something away for less than retail – but the purchaser has to buy something first.

Remember to have a great Twitter profile that mentions your company name as well as some of the products or services that you provide.

Facebook

An agreement has been reached whereby Google will be able to index Business Pages within Facebook and Facebook also now have several ways to display your Facebook Business page content within your own web site. This means that the items that you or others post into your Facebook Business Page will soon be available as search results in Google.

As with Twitter you can offer specials to your loyal fans and post information about the benefits of using your products or services.

Blogs

Blogs are a great way to create search engine friendly content as Blog posts are typically about a particular topic and can link directly to the sub pages of your web site. Content can be created quickly and easily and the more often your update the Blog the more often the various search engine robots will visit the blog.

Other Sources of Links

There are several other social media platforms that you should be using to help promote your business. Video’s could be hosted on http://www.youtube.com/. Image galleries could be hosted on http://www.picasa.com/ or http://www.flickr.com/.

You own personal details could be included in http://www.linkedin.com/ with a Company Group as well as on community websites such as http://www.oldfriends.co.nz/

Having a company profile that mentions some of the benefits of your products or services in each of these social media tools will help in the results that you see from search engines.

If you want to view Twitter and other social media results when you do a Google search click the word “Social” on the left-hand side of the screen next to the search results. You will see recent Tweets by Twitter uses as well as links to other Social Media content such as Blogs or Forum comments.

Contact me if you’d like to know more about how social media can work for your business.

EC Websites

Chamber moves to electronic voting for Executive Board elections

Last year the members of the Rotorua Chamber adopted a new constitution. There were a number of rule changes that has brought the Chamber into the modern era. One of these changes is the move to electronic voting for the election of Executive Board members. This move was made to encourage greater participation in the election process of the governing members.

The Chamber has been fortunate to secure the support of electionz.com, an organisation specialising in web-based elections. Amongst their clients are government and non-government organisations. Some organisations in Rotorua are already using their services.

Prior to the AGM, the names of the candidates standing for the Executive will appear on an electionz.com website. Each member organisation of the Chamber will have one person with the authority to vote on behalf of the organisation. They will be given a unique personal identification number to permit them to vote through the electionz.com website. Each voter will have the opportunity to vote for up to eight candidates for the Executive.

The result of the election will be announced at the AGM.

The Rotorua Chamber of commerce acknowledges to support and contribution of electionz.com to make this new voting process possible.

NZ in Recovery Position

The recent tremors in global markets, as a result of Europe’s sovereign debt woes, come at an unfortunate time for New Zealand. All the ducks appear to be in a row for the domestic economy: activity has picked up and is ready to accelerate, with a more balanced mix of growth focused around the goods-producing sectors. But there is a nontrivial risk that the European situation, if mishandled by the authorities, could lead to renewed difficulties in accessing credit – a particular risk for a nation like New Zealand that relies heavily on overseas financing.

Europe aside, external conditions continue to work in New Zealand’s favour. Commodity prices have pushed on to new record highs, and export penetration into the fast-growing Asian markets (excluding Japan) is steadily increasing. We estimate that export volumes – which saw only a modest turndown as a result of the global financial crisis – increased by nearly 10% in the year to March, and that growth has been broad-based.

Dairy has been the star performer to date, exemplified by Fonterra’s initial payout forecast for the 2010/11 season of $6.90 to $7.10 per Kg of milk solids. This is 50c higher than for the latest season, and even on this initial estimate would be the second highest payout on record, following the $7.90 per Kg payout in 2008. Fonterra also noted that if world prices and the exchange rate hold around current levels for most of the season – a big if – the final payout could be well above $8.00 per Kg. As for volume growth, drought conditions are now easing, though in some cases replaced by heavy rain – not ideal growing conditions for the early part of the season, but the risks have diminished.

Business confidence, one of the most reliable short-term indicators of growth, remains on the up-and-up. Own-activity expectations are at their highest in 11 years, and employment and investment intentions are now at above-average levels. These readings are consistent with quarterly GDP growth accelerating into the range of 1% or more. Indeed, the recovery is now so well-established that even the labour market has convincingly turned the corner, with the unemployment rate falling from 7.1% in December 2009 to 6.0% in March 2010.

Against this backdrop, on 10 June 2010 the RBNZ took the widely anticipated step of beginning to remove some of the substantial monetary policy stimulus currently in place. The Official Cash Rate (OCR) was lifted by 0.25% to 2.75% and in the accompanying statement the RBNZ made it clear that this should be seen as the first step in an extended series of rate hikes. The RBNZ’s projection for 90-day interest rates implied that the cash rate will rise to 5.5 to 6.0% over the next few years. That’s not quite consistent with a 0.25% lift at every review date for the next couple of years – but it’s not far off.

 



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